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Rosenborg U19 vs Molde U19 — Nasjonal U19 Champions League 2021

Rosenborg U19
Rosenborg U19
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Molde U19
Molde U19
3/2/2024Nasjonal U19 Champions LeagueNasjonal U19 Champions League · Group Stage - 3SalMar Banen Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Rosenborg U1936%
×Draw19%
Molde U1945%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rosenborg U19
2.31
Molde U19
2.59

Molde U19 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 23 away

creates per match

Rosenborg U19
2.40
Molde U19
2.48

allows per match

Rosenborg U19
2.70
Molde U19
2.22

finishing

Rosenborg U19+0.00on par
Molde U19+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg U19 ↓

Molde U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Rosenborg U19 or draw
55%
Rosenborg U19 or Molde U19
81%
Draw or Molde U19
64%

Winning margin

Rosenborg U19 wins by 2+
20%
Molde U19 wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Rosenborg U19 1+ goals
90%
Rosenborg U19 2+ goals
67%
Rosenborg U19 3+ goals
40%
Molde U19 1+ goals
92%
Molde U19 2+ goals
73%
Molde U19 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg U19 (draw refunded)
44%
Molde U19 (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg U19 at home — creates 2.40, concedes 2.70 · 20 matches

Molde U19 away — creates 2.48, concedes 2.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg U19 attack 2.40 + Molde U19 defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.31

Molde U19 attack 2.48 + Rosenborg U19 defence 2.70 → ÷2 → 2.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rosenborg U19 scores more
36%
level
19%
Molde U19 scores more
45%

Molde U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Molde U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nasjonal U19 Champions League: Rosenborg U19 2–2 Molde U19

Rosenborg U19 and Molde U19 drew 2-2 in Nasjonal U19 Champions League on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at SalMar Banen Kunstgress in Trondheim.