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Rosenborg II vs Tiller — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Rosenborg II
Rosenborg II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Tiller
Tiller
7/24/20233. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 12SalMar Banen Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Rosenborg II51%
×Draw19%
Tiller30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rosenborg II
2.57
Tiller
1.96

Rosenborg II creates 31% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 32 away

creates per match

Rosenborg II
2.92
Tiller
2.00

allows per match

Rosenborg II
1.92
Tiller
2.22

finishing

Rosenborg II+0.00on par
Tiller+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg II ↓

Tiller →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Rosenborg II or draw
70%
Rosenborg II or Tiller
81%
Draw or Tiller
49%

Winning margin

Rosenborg II wins by 2+
32%
Tiller wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rosenborg II 1+ goals
92%
Rosenborg II 2+ goals
72%
Rosenborg II 3+ goals
47%
Tiller 1+ goals
86%
Tiller 2+ goals
58%
Tiller 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg II (draw refunded)
63%
Tiller (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg II at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.92 · 26 matches

Tiller away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.22 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg II attack 2.92 + Tiller defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.57

Tiller attack 2.00 + Rosenborg II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rosenborg II scores more
51%
level
19%
Tiller scores more
30%

Rosenborg II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Rosenborg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rosenborg II vs Tiller

Tiller beat Rosenborg II 2-0 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on July 24, 2023.

The match was played at SalMar Banen Kunstgress in Trondheim.