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Rops vs Mariehamn — Veikkausliiga 2018

Rops
Rops
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mariehamn
Mariehamn
4/8/2018VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 1Rovaniemen keskuskenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Rops44%
×Draw27%
Mariehamn29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rops
1.39
Mariehamn
1.07

Rops creates 30% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 120 away

creates per match

Rops
1.07
Mariehamn
1.02

allows per match

Rops
1.12
Mariehamn
1.71

finishing

Rops+0.00on par
Mariehamn+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rops ↓

Mariehamn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Rops or draw
71%
Rops or Mariehamn
73%
Draw or Mariehamn
56%

Winning margin

Rops wins by 2+
21%
Mariehamn wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rops 1+ goals
75%
Rops 2+ goals
40%
Rops 3+ goals
16%
Mariehamn 1+ goals
66%
Mariehamn 2+ goals
29%
Mariehamn 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rops (draw refunded)
60%
Mariehamn (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rops at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.12 · 41 matches

Mariehamn away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.71 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rops attack 1.07 + Mariehamn defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.39

Mariehamn attack 1.02 + Rops defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rops scores more
44%
level
27%
Mariehamn scores more
29%

Rops at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rops will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rops vs Mariehamn

Rops beat Mariehamn 2-0 in Veikkausliiga on April 8, 2018.

The match was played at Rovaniemen keskuskenttä in Rovaniemi.