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Rops vs KuPS Akatemia — Ykkönen 2026

Rops
Rops
Preview
15:30
KuPS Akatemia
KuPS Akatemia
8/11/2026YkkönenYkkönen · Group StageKeskuskentta
Big match
54%
Rops
model favours
54%21%26%

Rops are unbeaten in 6 straight

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
70%
over 2.5 goals
68%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Rops54%
×Draw21%
KuPS Akatemia26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rops
2.17
KuPS Akatemia
1.46

Rops creates 49% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 36 away

creates per match

Rops
1.98
KuPS Akatemia
1.50

allows per match

Rops
1.42
KuPS Akatemia
2.36

finishing

Rops+0.00on par
KuPS Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 70Under: 3070%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 68No: 3268%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rops ↓

KuPS Akatemia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Rops or draw
74%
Rops or KuPS Akatemia
79%
Draw or KuPS Akatemia
46%

Winning margin

Rops wins by 2+
32%
KuPS Akatemia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rops 1+ goals
89%
Rops 2+ goals
64%
Rops 3+ goals
36%
KuPS Akatemia 1+ goals
77%
KuPS Akatemia 2+ goals
43%
KuPS Akatemia 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Rops (draw refunded)
68%
KuPS Akatemia (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rops at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.42 · 48 matches

KuPS Akatemia away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.36 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rops attack 1.98 + KuPS Akatemia defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.17

KuPS Akatemia attack 1.50 + Rops defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Rops scores more
54%
level
21%
KuPS Akatemia scores more
26%

Rops at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Rops will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • KuPS Akatemia score first in only 25% of matches
  • 75% of KuPS Akatemia’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 42% of Rops’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Rops
WDWWD
Akatemia
LDLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Rops host KuPS Akatemia

August 11, 2026: Rops take on KuPS Akatemia in Ykkönen. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Rops host KuPS Akatemia at Keskuskentta.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.