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Roma U20 vs Cesena U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Roma U20
Roma U20
Preview
10:00
Cesena U20
Cesena U20
3/6/2027Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 28
Big match
46%
Roma U20
model favours
46%24%30%

Top-of-the-table clash — Roma U20 4 vs Cesena U20 3

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Roma U2046%
×Draw24%
Cesena U2030%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roma U20
1.73
Cesena U20
1.35

Roma U20 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 39 away

creates per match

Roma U20
1.65
Cesena U20
1.74

allows per match

Roma U20
0.97
Cesena U20
1.82

finishing

Roma U20+0.00on par
Cesena U20+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roma U20 ↓

Cesena U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Roma U20 or draw
70%
Roma U20 or Cesena U20
76%
Draw or Cesena U20
54%

Winning margin

Roma U20 wins by 2+
25%
Cesena U20 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Roma U20 1+ goals
82%
Roma U20 2+ goals
52%
Roma U20 3+ goals
25%
Cesena U20 1+ goals
74%
Cesena U20 2+ goals
39%
Cesena U20 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Roma U20 (draw refunded)
61%
Cesena U20 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roma U20 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.97 · 40 matches

Cesena U20 away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.82 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roma U20 attack 1.65 + Cesena U20 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.73

Cesena U20 attack 1.74 + Roma U20 defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Roma U20 scores more
46%
level
24%
Cesena U20 scores more
30%

Roma U20 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Roma U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Roma U20 win just 36% against the top half (vs 69% against the bottom)
  • Cesena U20 win just 24% against the top half (vs 68% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 4 meetings
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged 4.8 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
LWDWD
U20
LWWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Roma U20 face Cesena U20 (Campionato Primavera - 1)

Campionato Primavera - 1 returns with Roma U20 hosting Cesena U20. Match starts March 6, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.