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Rokycany vs Sokol Lom — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Rokycany
Rokycany
FT
1 – 2
Sokol Lom
Sokol Lom
8/22/20204. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 1Stadion pod Husovými sady

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Rokycany37%
×Draw24%
Sokol Lom39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rokycany
1.54
Sokol Lom
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 34 away

creates per match

Rokycany
1.61
Sokol Lom
2.03

allows per match

Rokycany
1.17
Sokol Lom
1.47

finishing

Rokycany+0.00on par
Sokol Lom+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rokycany ↓

Sokol Lom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Rokycany or draw
61%
Rokycany or Sokol Lom
76%
Draw or Sokol Lom
63%

Winning margin

Rokycany wins by 2+
18%
Sokol Lom wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Rokycany 1+ goals
79%
Rokycany 2+ goals
45%
Rokycany 3+ goals
20%
Sokol Lom 1+ goals
80%
Sokol Lom 2+ goals
47%
Sokol Lom 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Rokycany (draw refunded)
48%
Sokol Lom (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rokycany at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.17 · 87 matches

Sokol Lom away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rokycany attack 1.61 + Sokol Lom defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.54

Sokol Lom attack 2.03 + Rokycany defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rokycany scores more
37%
level
24%
Sokol Lom scores more
39%

Sokol Lom at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sokol Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Rokycany 1–2 Sokol Lom

Sokol Lom beat Rokycany 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on August 22, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion pod Husovými sady in Rokycany.