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Rokycany vs Slavoj Český Krumlov — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Rokycany
Rokycany
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Slavoj Český Krumlov
Slavoj Český Krumlov
11/11/20234. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 15Stadion pod Husovými sady

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Rokycany50%
×Draw22%
Slavoj Český Krumlov28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rokycany
1.92
Slavoj Český Krumlov
1.40

Rokycany creates 37% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 60 away

creates per match

Rokycany
1.61
Slavoj Český Krumlov
1.63

allows per match

Rokycany
1.17
Slavoj Český Krumlov
2.22

finishing

Rokycany+0.00on par
Slavoj Český Krumlov+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rokycany ↓

Slavoj Český Krumlov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Rokycany or draw
72%
Rokycany or Slavoj Český Krumlov
78%
Draw or Slavoj Český Krumlov
50%

Winning margin

Rokycany wins by 2+
28%
Slavoj Český Krumlov wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rokycany 1+ goals
85%
Rokycany 2+ goals
57%
Rokycany 3+ goals
30%
Slavoj Český Krumlov 1+ goals
75%
Slavoj Český Krumlov 2+ goals
41%
Slavoj Český Krumlov 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Rokycany (draw refunded)
64%
Slavoj Český Krumlov (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rokycany at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.17 · 87 matches

Slavoj Český Krumlov away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.22 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rokycany attack 1.61 + Slavoj Český Krumlov defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.92

Slavoj Český Krumlov attack 1.63 + Rokycany defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rokycany scores more
50%
level
22%
Slavoj Český Krumlov scores more
28%

Rokycany at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Rokycany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rokycany 0 – 2 Slavoj Český Krumlov

Slavoj Český Krumlov beat Rokycany 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion pod Husovými sady in Rokycany.