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Rokycany vs Otava Katovice — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Rokycany
Rokycany
FT
1 – 0
Otava Katovice
Otava Katovice
8/23/20194. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 3Stadion pod Husovými sady (Rokycany)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Rokycany54%
×Draw22%
Otava Katovice24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rokycany
1.96
Otava Katovice
1.25

Rokycany creates 57% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 56 away

creates per match

Rokycany
1.61
Otava Katovice
1.34

allows per match

Rokycany
1.17
Otava Katovice
2.30

finishing

Rokycany+0.00on par
Otava Katovice+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rokycany ↓

Otava Katovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Rokycany or draw
76%
Rokycany or Otava Katovice
78%
Draw or Otava Katovice
46%

Winning margin

Rokycany wins by 2+
31%
Otava Katovice wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Rokycany 1+ goals
86%
Rokycany 2+ goals
58%
Rokycany 3+ goals
31%
Otava Katovice 1+ goals
71%
Otava Katovice 2+ goals
36%
Otava Katovice 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Rokycany (draw refunded)
69%
Otava Katovice (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rokycany at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.17 · 87 matches

Otava Katovice away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rokycany attack 1.61 + Otava Katovice defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.96

Otava Katovice attack 1.34 + Rokycany defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Rokycany scores more
54%
level
22%
Otava Katovice scores more
24%

Rokycany at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Rokycany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rokycany vs Otava Katovice

Rokycany beat Otava Katovice 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on August 23, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion pod Husovými sady (Rokycany).