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Rokycany vs Klatovy — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Rokycany
Rokycany
PST
14:00
Klatovy
Klatovy
3/29/20204. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 19Stadion pod Husovými sady (Rokycany)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Rokycany52%
×Draw22%
Klatovy26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rokycany
1.92
Klatovy
1.30

Rokycany creates 48% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 52 away

creates per match

Rokycany
1.61
Klatovy
1.44

allows per match

Rokycany
1.17
Klatovy
2.23

finishing

Rokycany+0.00on par
Klatovy+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rokycany ↓

Klatovy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Rokycany or draw
74%
Rokycany or Klatovy
78%
Draw or Klatovy
48%

Winning margin

Rokycany wins by 2+
29%
Klatovy wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rokycany 1+ goals
85%
Rokycany 2+ goals
57%
Rokycany 3+ goals
30%
Klatovy 1+ goals
73%
Klatovy 2+ goals
37%
Klatovy 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rokycany (draw refunded)
67%
Klatovy (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rokycany at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.17 · 87 matches

Klatovy away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.23 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rokycany attack 1.61 + Klatovy defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.92

Klatovy attack 1.44 + Rokycany defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Rokycany scores more
52%
level
22%
Klatovy scores more
26%

Rokycany at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Rokycany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rokycany vs Klatovy — Match Preview

Rokycany face Klatovy on March 29, 2020 in this 4. liga - Divizie A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Rokycany host Klatovy at Stadion pod Husovými sady (Rokycany).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.