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Rodina Moskva vs Torpedo Moskva — First League 2018

Rodina Moskva
Rodina Moskva
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
9/4/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 8Sapsan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Rodina Moskva42%
×Draw28%
Torpedo Moskva31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodina Moskva
1.29
Torpedo Moskva
1.06

Rodina Moskva creates 22% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 104 away

creates per match

Rodina Moskva
1.53
Torpedo Moskva
1.22

allows per match

Rodina Moskva
0.91
Torpedo Moskva
1.05

finishing

Rodina Moskva+0.00on par
Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodina Moskva ↓

Torpedo Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Rodina Moskva or draw
69%
Rodina Moskva or Torpedo Moskva
72%
Draw or Torpedo Moskva
58%

Winning margin

Rodina Moskva wins by 2+
19%
Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rodina Moskva 1+ goals
72%
Rodina Moskva 2+ goals
37%
Rodina Moskva 3+ goals
14%
Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
65%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
29%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)
58%
Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodina Moskva at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.91 · 68 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.05 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodina Moskva attack 1.53 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.29

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.22 + Rodina Moskva defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rodina Moskva scores more
42%
level
28%
Torpedo Moskva scores more
31%

Rodina Moskva at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rodina Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rodina Moskva vs Torpedo Moskva

Rodina Moskva beat Torpedo Moskva 2-0 in First League on September 4, 2023.

The match was played at Sapsan Arena in Moskva.