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Rodina Moskva II vs Novosibirsk — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Rodina Moskva II
Rodina Moskva II
Preview
15:00
Novosibirsk
Novosibirsk
9/26/2026Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 11Spartakovets imeni N.P. Starostina
40%
Rodina Moskva II
model favours
40%27%33%

Novosibirsk score first in only 30% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Rodina Moskva II40%
×Draw27%
Novosibirsk33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodina Moskva II
1.36
Novosibirsk
1.20

Rodina Moskva II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 28 away

creates per match

Rodina Moskva II
1.11
Novosibirsk
0.96

allows per match

Rodina Moskva II
1.44
Novosibirsk
1.61

finishing

Rodina Moskva II+0.00on par
Novosibirsk+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodina Moskva II ↓

Novosibirsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rodina Moskva II or draw
67%
Rodina Moskva II or Novosibirsk
73%
Draw or Novosibirsk
60%

Winning margin

Rodina Moskva II wins by 2+
19%
Novosibirsk wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Rodina Moskva II 1+ goals
74%
Rodina Moskva II 2+ goals
39%
Rodina Moskva II 3+ goals
16%
Novosibirsk 1+ goals
70%
Novosibirsk 2+ goals
34%
Novosibirsk 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rodina Moskva II (draw refunded)
55%
Novosibirsk (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodina Moskva II at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Novosibirsk away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodina Moskva II attack 1.11 + Novosibirsk defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.36

Novosibirsk attack 0.96 + Rodina Moskva II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rodina Moskva II scores more
40%
level
27%
Novosibirsk scores more
33%

Rodina Moskva II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rodina Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Novosibirsk have scored in 7 games running
  • 70% of Novosibirsk’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged just 1.3 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
II
WLLLD
Novosibirsk
WLDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rodina Moskva II face Novosibirsk (Second League A - Fall Season Gold)

Second League A - Fall Season Gold returns with Rodina Moskva II hosting Novosibirsk. Match starts September 26, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Rodina Moskva II host Novosibirsk at Spartakovets imeni N.P. Starostina.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.