Rodina Moskva II vs Dinamo Bryansk

Rodina Moskva II

Preview

15:00

Dinamo Bryansk

8/15/2026

Second League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 5Spartakovets imeni N.P. Starostina

38%

Rodina Moskva II

model favours

38%26%35%

Dinamo Bryansk are unbeaten in 5 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

52%

under 2.5 goals

53%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Rodina Moskva II38%

×Draw26%

Dinamo Bryansk35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rodina Moskva IIExpected goals in this matchDinamo Bryansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.27

Rodina Moskva II

1.33

Dinamo Bryansk

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.11

creates per match

1.11

1.44

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Rodina Moskva II

1.11

Dinamo Bryansk

1.11

allows per match

Rodina Moskva II

1.44

Dinamo Bryansk

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rodina Moskva II+0.00on par

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodina Moskva II ↓

Dinamo Bryansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rodina Moskva II or draw

65%

Rodina Moskva II or Dinamo Bryansk

74%

Draw or Dinamo Bryansk

62%

Winning margin

Rodina Moskva II wins by 2+

17%

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Rodina Moskva II 1+ goals

74%

Rodina Moskva II 2+ goals

38%

Rodina Moskva II 3+ goals

15%

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals

72%

Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals

36%

Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Rodina Moskva II (draw refunded)

52%

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodina Moskva II at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Dinamo Bryansk away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodina Moskva II attack 1.11 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.33

Dinamo Bryansk attack 1.11 + Rodina Moskva II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rodina Moskva II scores more

38%

level

26%

Dinamo Bryansk scores more

35%

Rodina Moskva II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rodina Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Dinamo Bryansk score first in only 27% of matches
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

II

WLLLD

Bryansk

WDWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff