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Rodina Moskva II vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Rodina Moskva II
Rodina Moskva II
Preview
14:00
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
7/19/2026Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 1Spartakovets imeni N.P. Starostina
42%
Rodina Moskva II
model favours
42%27%31%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Rodina Moskva II42%
×Draw27%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodina Moskva II
1.33
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.11

Rodina Moskva II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Rodina Moskva II
1.11
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
0.78

allows per match

Rodina Moskva II
1.44
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.56

finishing

Rodina Moskva II+0.00on par
Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodina Moskva II ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Rodina Moskva II or draw
69%
Rodina Moskva II or Alaniya Vladikavkaz
73%
Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz
58%

Winning margin

Rodina Moskva II wins by 2+
19%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rodina Moskva II 1+ goals
74%
Rodina Moskva II 2+ goals
38%
Rodina Moskva II 3+ goals
15%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals
67%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals
30%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Rodina Moskva II (draw refunded)
57%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodina Moskva II at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodina Moskva II attack 1.11 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.33

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 0.78 + Rodina Moskva II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rodina Moskva II scores more
42%
level
27%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more
31%

Rodina Moskva II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rodina Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Alaniya Vladikavkaz have scored in 9 games running
  • Rodina Moskva II and Alaniya Vladikavkaz have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
II
WLLLD
Vladikavkaz
DDLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rodina Moskva II vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz — Match Preview

Rodina Moskva II face Alaniya Vladikavkaz on July 19, 2026 in this Second League A - Fall Season Gold fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Rodina Moskva II host Alaniya Vladikavkaz at Spartakovets imeni N.P. Starostina.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.