Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Roda vs Villarreal III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Roda
Roda
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Villarreal III
Villarreal III
2/17/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 13Ciudad Deportiva Pamesa Cerámica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Roda38%
×Draw27%
Villarreal III35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roda
1.25
Villarreal III
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 112 away

creates per match

Roda
1.28
Villarreal III
1.38

allows per match

Roda
0.99
Villarreal III
1.23

finishing

Roda+0.00on par
Villarreal III+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roda ↓

Villarreal III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Roda or draw
65%
Roda or Villarreal III
73%
Draw or Villarreal III
62%

Winning margin

Roda wins by 2+
16%
Villarreal III wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Roda 1+ goals
71%
Roda 2+ goals
36%
Roda 3+ goals
13%
Villarreal III 1+ goals
70%
Villarreal III 2+ goals
33%
Villarreal III 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Roda (draw refunded)
52%
Villarreal III (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roda at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.99 · 111 matches

Villarreal III away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roda attack 1.28 + Villarreal III defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

Villarreal III attack 1.38 + Roda defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Roda scores more
38%
level
27%
Villarreal III scores more
35%

Roda at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Roda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Roda 2–2 Villarreal III

Roda and Villarreal III drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on February 17, 2021.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Pamesa Cerámica in Villarreal.