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Roda vs Torrent — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Roda
Roda
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Torrent
Torrent
1/20/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 10Ciudad Deportiva Pamesa Cerámica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Roda41%
×Draw29%
Torrent30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roda
1.19
Torrent
0.98

Roda creates 21% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 47 away

creates per match

Roda
1.28
Torrent
0.98

allows per match

Roda
0.99
Torrent
1.09

finishing

Roda+0.00on par
Torrent+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roda ↓

Torrent →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Roda or draw
70%
Roda or Torrent
71%
Draw or Torrent
59%

Winning margin

Roda wins by 2+
18%
Torrent wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Roda 1+ goals
70%
Roda 2+ goals
33%
Roda 3+ goals
12%
Torrent 1+ goals
62%
Torrent 2+ goals
26%
Torrent 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Roda (draw refunded)
57%
Torrent (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roda at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.99 · 111 matches

Torrent away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.09 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roda attack 1.28 + Torrent defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.19

Torrent attack 0.98 + Roda defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Roda scores more
41%
level
29%
Torrent scores more
30%

Roda at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Roda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Roda 1–1 Torrent

Roda and Torrent drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on January 20, 2021.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Pamesa Cerámica in Villarreal.