Roda 2–2 Levante II: Result & Stats

Roda

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Levante II

11/25/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 12Ciutat Esportiva Pamesa Ceramica Campo 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Roda38%

×Draw29%

Levante II33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RodaExpected goals in this matchLevante II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.06

Roda

1.16

Levante II

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 68 away

1.28

creates per match

1.12

0.99

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Roda

1.28

Levante II

1.12

allows per match

Roda

0.99

Levante II

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Roda+0.00on par

Levante II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roda ↓

Levante II →

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Roda or draw

67%

Roda or Levante II

71%

Draw or Levante II

62%

Winning margin

Roda wins by 2+

16%

Levante II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Roda 1+ goals

69%

Roda 2+ goals

32%

Roda 3+ goals

11%

Levante II 1+ goals

65%

Levante II 2+ goals

29%

Levante II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Roda (draw refunded)

54%

Levante II (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Roda at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.99 · 111 matches

Levante II away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.03 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Roda attack 1.28 + Levante II defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.16

Levante II attack 1.12 + Roda defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Roda scores more

38%

level

29%

Levante II scores more

33%

Roda at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Roda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff