Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Roda vs Jong PSV U21 — Eerste Divisie 2018

Roda
Roda
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Jong PSV U21
Jong PSV U21
12/8/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 18Parkstad Limburg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Roda45%
×Draw21%
Jong PSV U2133%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roda
2.07
Jong PSV U21
1.76

Roda creates 18% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Roda
1.79
Jong PSV U21
1.90

allows per match

Roda
1.63
Jong PSV U21
2.35

finishing

Roda-0.79scores less
Jong PSV U21+0.10scores more

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roda ↓

Jong PSV U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Roda or draw
67%
Roda or Jong PSV U21
79%
Draw or Jong PSV U21
55%

Winning margin

Roda wins by 2+
26%
Jong PSV U21 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Roda 1+ goals
87%
Roda 2+ goals
61%
Roda 3+ goals
34%
Jong PSV U21 1+ goals
83%
Jong PSV U21 2+ goals
52%
Jong PSV U21 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Roda (draw refunded)
58%
Jong PSV U21 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roda at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.63 · 5 matches

Jong PSV U21 away — creates 1.90, concedes 2.35 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roda attack 1.79 + Jong PSV U21 defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.07

Jong PSV U21 attack 1.90 + Roda defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Roda scores more
45%
level
21%
Jong PSV U21 scores more
33%

Roda at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Roda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Roda 2–1 Jong PSV U21

Roda beat Jong PSV U21 2-1 in Eerste Divisie on December 8, 2023.

The match was played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Kerkrade.