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Rochdale vs Chesterfield — League Two 2018

Rochdale
Rochdale
Preview
15:00
Chesterfield
Chesterfield
1/1/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 23Spotland Stadium
Big match
37%
Rochdale
model favours
37%26%37%

Chesterfield score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Rochdale37%
×Draw26%
Chesterfield37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rochdale
1.32
Chesterfield
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 74 away

creates per match

Rochdale
1.38
Chesterfield
1.35

allows per match

Rochdale
1.32
Chesterfield
1.27

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par
Chesterfield+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Chesterfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw
63%
Rochdale or Chesterfield
74%
Draw or Chesterfield
63%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+
16%
Chesterfield wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals
73%
Rochdale 2+ goals
38%
Rochdale 3+ goals
15%
Chesterfield 1+ goals
74%
Chesterfield 2+ goals
38%
Chesterfield 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)
50%
Chesterfield (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

Chesterfield away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.27 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.38 + Chesterfield defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.32

Chesterfield attack 1.35 + Rochdale defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rochdale scores more
37%
level
26%
Chesterfield scores more
37%

Rochdale at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Rochdale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Rochdale
Balanced
Chesterfield
Possession-dominant
52%PossessionBiggest gap60%
70%Pass accuracy78%
10.6Shots12.0
—xG1.38
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
RochdaleChesterfield

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Rochdale
2
Draws
4
Chesterfield
Avg goals: 3.1BTTS: 70%
2–21–21–23–13–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Rochdale
DLDDW
Chesterfield
LDDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Rochdale host Chesterfield

January 1, 2027: Rochdale take on Chesterfield in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Rochdale host Chesterfield at Spotland Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.