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Rochdale vs Accrington ST — League Two 2018

Rochdale
Rochdale
Preview
14:00
Accrington ST
Accrington ST
10/24/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 13Spotland Stadium
Big match
44%
Rochdale
model favours
44%26%30%

Rochdale have won 5 of the last 6 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Rochdale44%
×Draw26%
Accrington ST30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rochdale
1.48
Accrington ST
1.17

Rochdale creates 26% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 91 away

creates per match

Rochdale
1.38
Accrington ST
1.02

allows per match

Rochdale
1.32
Accrington ST
1.57

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par
Accrington ST+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Accrington ST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw
70%
Rochdale or Accrington ST
74%
Draw or Accrington ST
56%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+
22%
Accrington ST wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals
77%
Rochdale 2+ goals
43%
Rochdale 3+ goals
19%
Accrington ST 1+ goals
69%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
33%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)
60%
Accrington ST (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.57 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.38 + Accrington ST defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

Accrington ST attack 1.02 + Rochdale defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rochdale scores more
44%
level
26%
Accrington ST scores more
30%

Rochdale at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rochdale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Accrington ST outscore their xG (1.2 vs 0.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Rochdale
Balanced
Accrington ST
Balanced
52%Possession47%
70%Pass accuracyBiggest gap62%
10.5Shots11.5
—xG0.89
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
RochdaleAccrington ST

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

5
Rochdale
0
Draws
1
Accrington ST
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 67%
3–11–22–12–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Rochdale
DLDDW
ST
WDLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Rochdale host Accrington ST

October 24, 2026: Rochdale take on Accrington ST in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Rochdale host Accrington ST at Spotland Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.