Robin Hood 1–2 Transvaal: Result & Stats

Robin Hood

FT

1 – 2

Transvaal

7/17/2022

Eerste Divisie · Round 17Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Robin Hood54%

×Draw21%

Transvaal24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Robin HoodExpected goals in this matchTransvaal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.32

Robin Hood

2.06

Transvaal

1.32

Robin Hood creates 56% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 60 away

2.92

creates per match

1.90

0.74

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Robin Hood

2.92

Transvaal

1.90

allows per match

Robin Hood

0.74

Transvaal

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Robin Hood+0.00on par

Transvaal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Robin Hood ↓

Transvaal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Robin Hood or draw

76%

Robin Hood or Transvaal

79%

Draw or Transvaal

46%

Winning margin

Robin Hood wins by 2+

32%

Transvaal wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Robin Hood 1+ goals

87%

Robin Hood 2+ goals

61%

Robin Hood 3+ goals

34%

Transvaal 1+ goals

73%

Transvaal 2+ goals

38%

Transvaal 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Robin Hood (draw refunded)

69%

Transvaal (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Robin Hood at home — creates 2.92, concedes 0.74 · 61 matches

Transvaal away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.20 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Robin Hood attack 2.92 + Transvaal defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 2.06

Transvaal attack 1.90 + Robin Hood defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Robin Hood scores more

54%

level

21%

Transvaal scores more

24%

Robin Hood at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Robin Hood will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff