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Roasso Kumamoto vs Renofa Yamaguchi — J2 League 2018

Roasso Kumamoto
Roasso Kumamoto
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Renofa Yamaguchi
Renofa Yamaguchi
11/12/2023J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 42Egao Kenko Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Roasso Kumamoto39%
×Draw26%
Renofa Yamaguchi34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roasso Kumamoto
1.34
Renofa Yamaguchi
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 107 home / 168 away

creates per match

Roasso Kumamoto
1.18
Renofa Yamaguchi
0.98

allows per match

Roasso Kumamoto
1.50
Renofa Yamaguchi
1.50

finishing

Roasso Kumamoto+0.00on par
Renofa Yamaguchi+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roasso Kumamoto ↓

Renofa Yamaguchi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Roasso Kumamoto or draw
66%
Roasso Kumamoto or Renofa Yamaguchi
74%
Draw or Renofa Yamaguchi
61%

Winning margin

Roasso Kumamoto wins by 2+
18%
Renofa Yamaguchi wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Roasso Kumamoto 1+ goals
74%
Roasso Kumamoto 2+ goals
39%
Roasso Kumamoto 3+ goals
15%
Renofa Yamaguchi 1+ goals
71%
Renofa Yamaguchi 2+ goals
35%
Renofa Yamaguchi 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Roasso Kumamoto (draw refunded)
53%
Renofa Yamaguchi (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roasso Kumamoto at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.50 · 107 matches

Renofa Yamaguchi away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.50 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roasso Kumamoto attack 1.18 + Renofa Yamaguchi defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.34

Renofa Yamaguchi attack 0.98 + Roasso Kumamoto defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Roasso Kumamoto scores more
39%
level
26%
Renofa Yamaguchi scores more
34%

Roasso Kumamoto at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Roasso Kumamoto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Roasso Kumamoto 3–1 Renofa Yamaguchi

Roasso Kumamoto beat Renofa Yamaguchi 3-1 in J2 League on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Egao Kenko Stadium in Kumamoto.