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RNK Split vs Uskok Klis — Third NL - Jug 2019

RNK Split
RNK Split
FT
4 – 0
Uskok Klis
Uskok Klis
9/30/2020Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 7Stadion Park mladeži

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

RNK Split53%
×Draw25%
Uskok Klis22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RNK Split
1.61
Uskok Klis
0.95

RNK Split creates 69% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 87 away

creates per match

RNK Split
1.67
Uskok Klis
0.89

allows per match

RNK Split
1.00
Uskok Klis
1.56

finishing

RNK Split+0.00on par
Uskok Klis+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RNK Split ↓

Uskok Klis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

RNK Split or draw
78%
RNK Split or Uskok Klis
75%
Draw or Uskok Klis
47%

Winning margin

RNK Split wins by 2+
28%
Uskok Klis wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

RNK Split 1+ goals
80%
RNK Split 2+ goals
48%
RNK Split 3+ goals
22%
Uskok Klis 1+ goals
61%
Uskok Klis 2+ goals
25%
Uskok Klis 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

RNK Split (draw refunded)
70%
Uskok Klis (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RNK Split at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 57 matches

Uskok Klis away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.56 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RNK Split attack 1.67 + Uskok Klis defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.61

Uskok Klis attack 0.89 + RNK Split defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

RNK Split scores more
53%
level
25%
Uskok Klis scores more
22%

RNK Split at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "RNK Split will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: RNK Split 4–0 Uskok Klis

RNK Split beat Uskok Klis 4-0 in Third NL - Jug on September 30, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Park mladeži in Split.