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RNK Split vs Hrvatski vitez — Third NL - Jug 2019

RNK Split
RNK Split
FT
1 – 0
Hrvatski vitez
Hrvatski vitez
9/12/2020Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 3Stadion Park mladeži

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

RNK Split55%
×Draw23%
Hrvatski vitez22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RNK Split
1.82
Hrvatski vitez
1.06

RNK Split creates 72% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 93 away

creates per match

RNK Split
1.67
Hrvatski vitez
1.11

allows per match

RNK Split
1.00
Hrvatski vitez
1.97

finishing

RNK Split+0.00on par
Hrvatski vitez+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RNK Split ↓

Hrvatski vitez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

RNK Split or draw
78%
RNK Split or Hrvatski vitez
77%
Draw or Hrvatski vitez
45%

Winning margin

RNK Split wins by 2+
31%
Hrvatski vitez wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

RNK Split 1+ goals
84%
RNK Split 2+ goals
54%
RNK Split 3+ goals
27%
Hrvatski vitez 1+ goals
65%
Hrvatski vitez 2+ goals
29%
Hrvatski vitez 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

RNK Split (draw refunded)
71%
Hrvatski vitez (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RNK Split at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 57 matches

Hrvatski vitez away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.97 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RNK Split attack 1.67 + Hrvatski vitez defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.82

Hrvatski vitez attack 1.11 + RNK Split defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

RNK Split scores more
55%
level
23%
Hrvatski vitez scores more
22%

RNK Split at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "RNK Split will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: RNK Split 1–0 Hrvatski vitez

RNK Split beat Hrvatski vitez 1-0 in Third NL - Jug on September 12, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Park mladeži in Split.