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RNK Split vs GOŠK Dubrovnik — Third NL - Jug 2019

RNK Split
RNK Split
FT
4 – 2
GOŠK Dubrovnik
GOŠK Dubrovnik
10/19/2019Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 9Stadion Park mladeži

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

RNK Split56%
×Draw24%
GOŠK Dubrovnik20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RNK Split
1.73
GOŠK Dubrovnik
0.93

RNK Split creates 86% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 102 away

creates per match

RNK Split
1.67
GOŠK Dubrovnik
0.86

allows per match

RNK Split
1.00
GOŠK Dubrovnik
1.79

finishing

RNK Split+0.00on par
GOŠK Dubrovnik+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RNK Split ↓

GOŠK Dubrovnik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

RNK Split or draw
80%
RNK Split or GOŠK Dubrovnik
76%
Draw or GOŠK Dubrovnik
44%

Winning margin

RNK Split wins by 2+
31%
GOŠK Dubrovnik wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

RNK Split 1+ goals
82%
RNK Split 2+ goals
52%
RNK Split 3+ goals
25%
GOŠK Dubrovnik 1+ goals
61%
GOŠK Dubrovnik 2+ goals
24%
GOŠK Dubrovnik 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

RNK Split (draw refunded)
74%
GOŠK Dubrovnik (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RNK Split at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 57 matches

GOŠK Dubrovnik away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.79 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RNK Split attack 1.67 + GOŠK Dubrovnik defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.73

GOŠK Dubrovnik attack 0.86 + RNK Split defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

RNK Split scores more
56%
level
24%
GOŠK Dubrovnik scores more
20%

RNK Split at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "RNK Split will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RNK Split vs GOŠK Dubrovnik

RNK Split beat GOŠK Dubrovnik 4-2 in Third NL - Jug on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Park mladeži in Split.