Riverside Olympic U21 2–4 Launceston U21

Riverside Olympic U21

FT

2 – 4

Launceston U21

3/16/2024

Tasmania Northern Championship · Round 1Windsor Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Riverside Olympic U2157%

×Draw17%

Launceston U2126%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Riverside Olympic U21Expected goals in this matchLaunceston U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.00

2.04

Riverside Olympic U21

3.00

Launceston U21

2.04

Riverside Olympic U21 creates 47% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 28 away

3.14

creates per match

1.75

2.32

allows per match

2.86

creates per match

Riverside Olympic U21

3.14

Launceston U21

1.75

allows per match

Riverside Olympic U21

2.32

Launceston U21

2.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Riverside Olympic U21+0.00on par

Launceston U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Riverside Olympic U21 ↓

Launceston U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–24%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–15%

4–25%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

73%27%4.5

55%45%

Double chance

Riverside Olympic U21 or draw

74%

Riverside Olympic U21 or Launceston U21

83%

Draw or Launceston U21

43%

Winning margin

Riverside Olympic U21 wins by 2+

38%

Launceston U21 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Riverside Olympic U21 1+ goals

95%

Riverside Olympic U21 2+ goals

79%

Riverside Olympic U21 3+ goals

56%

Launceston U21 1+ goals

87%

Launceston U21 2+ goals

60%

Launceston U21 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Riverside Olympic U21 (draw refunded)

69%

Launceston U21 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

78%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Riverside Olympic U21 at home — creates 3.14, concedes 2.32 · 28 matches

Launceston U21 away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.86 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Riverside Olympic U21 attack 3.14 + Launceston U21 defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 3.00

Launceston U21 attack 1.75 + Riverside Olympic U21 defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Riverside Olympic U21 scores more

57%

level

17%

Launceston U21 scores more

26%

Riverside Olympic U21 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Riverside Olympic U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff