Rivers United 1–1 Bendel Insurance: Result & Stats

Rivers United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Bendel Insurance

N. Nwagua 38'

C. Okereke 21'

12/28/2023

NPFL · Round 16Adokiye Amiesimaka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Rivers United59%

×Draw27%

Bendel Insurance13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rivers UnitedExpected goals in this matchBendel Insurance

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.51

Rivers United

1.41

Bendel Insurance

0.51

Rivers United creates 176% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 79 away

1.69

creates per match

0.61

0.41

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Rivers United

1.69

Bendel Insurance

0.61

allows per match

Rivers United

0.41

Bendel Insurance

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rivers United+0.00on par

Bendel Insurance+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rivers United ↓

Bendel Insurance →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–111%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Rivers United or draw

87%

Rivers United or Bendel Insurance

73%

Draw or Bendel Insurance

41%

Winning margin

Rivers United wins by 2+

30%

Bendel Insurance wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Rivers United 1+ goals

76%

Rivers United 2+ goals

41%

Rivers United 3+ goals

17%

Bendel Insurance 1+ goals

40%

Bendel Insurance 2+ goals

9%

Bendel Insurance 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Rivers United (draw refunded)

82%

Bendel Insurance (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rivers United at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.41 · 131 matches

Bendel Insurance away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.13 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rivers United attack 1.69 + Bendel Insurance defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.41

Bendel Insurance attack 0.61 + Rivers United defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Rivers United scores more

59%

level

27%

Bendel Insurance scores more

13%

Rivers United at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Rivers United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

C. Okereke

22'

38'

N. Nwagua

66'

70'

E. Kazie

90+6'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff