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Rivers United vs Akwa United — NPFL 2019

Rivers United
Rivers United
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Akwa United
Akwa United
7/18/2021NPFLNPFL · Round 33Yakubu Gowon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Rivers United61%
×Draw26%
Akwa United13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rivers United
1.49
Akwa United
0.54

Rivers United creates 176% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 112 away

creates per match

Rivers United
1.69
Akwa United
0.66

allows per match

Rivers United
0.41
Akwa United
1.29

finishing

Rivers United+0.00on par
Akwa United+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rivers United ↓

Akwa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Rivers United or draw
87%
Rivers United or Akwa United
74%
Draw or Akwa United
39%

Winning margin

Rivers United wins by 2+
32%
Akwa United wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Rivers United 1+ goals
77%
Rivers United 2+ goals
44%
Rivers United 3+ goals
19%
Akwa United 1+ goals
42%
Akwa United 2+ goals
10%
Akwa United 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Rivers United (draw refunded)
82%
Akwa United (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rivers United at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.41 · 131 matches

Akwa United away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.29 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rivers United attack 1.69 + Akwa United defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.49

Akwa United attack 0.66 + Rivers United defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Rivers United scores more
61%
level
26%
Akwa United scores more
13%

Rivers United at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Rivers United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rivers United vs Akwa United

Rivers United and Akwa United drew 1-1 in NPFL on July 18, 2021.

The match was played at Yakubu Gowon Stadium in Port Harcourt.