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River Ebro vs Yagüe — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

River Ebro
River Ebro
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Yagüe
Yagüe
1/9/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 15Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

River Ebro51%
×Draw25%
Yagüe24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

River Ebro
1.61
Yagüe
1.03

River Ebro creates 56% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 91 away

creates per match

River Ebro
1.24
Yagüe
0.90

allows per match

River Ebro
1.16
Yagüe
1.99

finishing

River Ebro+0.00on par
Yagüe+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Ebro ↓

Yagüe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

River Ebro or draw
76%
River Ebro or Yagüe
75%
Draw or Yagüe
49%

Winning margin

River Ebro wins by 2+
27%
Yagüe wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

River Ebro 1+ goals
80%
River Ebro 2+ goals
48%
River Ebro 3+ goals
22%
Yagüe 1+ goals
64%
Yagüe 2+ goals
28%
Yagüe 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

River Ebro (draw refunded)
68%
Yagüe (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Ebro at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.16 · 93 matches

Yagüe away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.99 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Ebro attack 1.24 + Yagüe defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.61

Yagüe attack 0.90 + River Ebro defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

River Ebro scores more
51%
level
25%
Yagüe scores more
24%

River Ebro at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "River Ebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: River Ebro vs Yagüe

River Ebro beat Yagüe 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on January 9, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio San Miguel in Rincón de Soto.