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River Ebro vs Haro Deportivo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

River Ebro
River Ebro
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Haro Deportivo
Haro Deportivo
1/8/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 15Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

River Ebro45%
×Draw27%
Haro Deportivo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

River Ebro
1.42
Haro Deportivo
1.05

River Ebro creates 35% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 81 away

creates per match

River Ebro
1.24
Haro Deportivo
0.94

allows per match

River Ebro
1.16
Haro Deportivo
1.60

finishing

River Ebro+0.00on par
Haro Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Ebro ↓

Haro Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

River Ebro or draw
72%
River Ebro or Haro Deportivo
73%
Draw or Haro Deportivo
55%

Winning margin

River Ebro wins by 2+
22%
Haro Deportivo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

River Ebro 1+ goals
76%
River Ebro 2+ goals
41%
River Ebro 3+ goals
17%
Haro Deportivo 1+ goals
65%
Haro Deportivo 2+ goals
28%
Haro Deportivo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

River Ebro (draw refunded)
62%
Haro Deportivo (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Ebro at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.16 · 93 matches

Haro Deportivo away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.60 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Ebro attack 1.24 + Haro Deportivo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.42

Haro Deportivo attack 0.94 + River Ebro defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

River Ebro scores more
45%
level
27%
Haro Deportivo scores more
28%

River Ebro at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "River Ebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: River Ebro 1–0 Haro Deportivo

River Ebro beat Haro Deportivo 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on January 8, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio San Miguel in Rincón de Soto.