Rivadavia Lincoln 2–0 Alvarado: Result & Stats

Rivadavia Lincoln

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Alvarado

5/13/2013

Torneo Federal A · 2nd Phase Reválida 3 - FinalsEstadio de Rivadavia de Lincoln

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Rivadavia Lincoln42%

×Draw36%

Alvarado21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rivadavia LincolnExpected goals in this matchAlvarado

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

0.56

Rivadavia Lincoln

0.92

Alvarado

0.56

Rivadavia Lincoln creates 64% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 41 away

0.90

creates per match

0.83

0.30

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Rivadavia Lincoln

0.90

Alvarado

0.83

allows per match

Rivadavia Lincoln

0.30

Alvarado

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rivadavia Lincoln+0.00on par

Alvarado+0.00on par

Total goals

Under81
Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No74
Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rivadavia Lincoln ↓

Alvarado →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–023%

0–113%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–15%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (23%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

77%23%1.5

44%56%2.5

19%81%3.5

6%94%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Rivadavia Lincoln or draw

79%

Rivadavia Lincoln or Alvarado

64%

Draw or Alvarado

58%

Winning margin

Rivadavia Lincoln wins by 2+

16%

Alvarado wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Rivadavia Lincoln 1+ goals

60%

Rivadavia Lincoln 2+ goals

23%

Rivadavia Lincoln 3+ goals

7%

Alvarado 1+ goals

43%

Alvarado 2+ goals

11%

Alvarado 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Rivadavia Lincoln (draw refunded)

66%

Alvarado (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

14%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rivadavia Lincoln at home — creates 0.90, concedes 0.30 · 10 matches

Alvarado away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.93 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rivadavia Lincoln attack 0.90 + Alvarado defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.92

Alvarado attack 0.83 + Rivadavia Lincoln defence 0.30 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rivadavia Lincoln scores more

42%

level

36%

Alvarado scores more

21%

Rivadavia Lincoln at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rivadavia Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Rivadavia Lincoln 2–0 Alvarado

Rivadavia Lincoln beat Alvarado 2-0 in Torneo Federal A on May 13, 2013.

The match was played at Estadio de Rivadavia de Lincoln.

Rivadavia Lincoln vs Alvarado — Torneo Federal A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Torneo Federal A: Rivadavia Lincoln 2–0 Alvarado