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Rio Grande Valley vs Phoenix Rising — USL Championship 2018

Rio Grande Valley
Rio Grande Valley
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Phoenix Rising
Phoenix Rising
7/14/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 33H-E-B Park (Edinburg, Texas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Rio Grande Valley41%
×Draw25%
Phoenix Rising33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rio Grande Valley
1.48
Phoenix Rising
1.30

Rio Grande Valley creates 14% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 136 away

creates per match

Rio Grande Valley
1.44
Phoenix Rising
1.40

allows per match

Rio Grande Valley
1.21
Phoenix Rising
1.51

finishing

Rio Grande Valley+0.00on par
Phoenix Rising+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Grande Valley ↓

Phoenix Rising →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rio Grande Valley or draw
67%
Rio Grande Valley or Phoenix Rising
75%
Draw or Phoenix Rising
59%

Winning margin

Rio Grande Valley wins by 2+
20%
Phoenix Rising wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rio Grande Valley 1+ goals
77%
Rio Grande Valley 2+ goals
43%
Rio Grande Valley 3+ goals
19%
Phoenix Rising 1+ goals
73%
Phoenix Rising 2+ goals
37%
Phoenix Rising 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rio Grande Valley (draw refunded)
55%
Phoenix Rising (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Grande Valley at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.21 · 91 matches

Phoenix Rising away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.51 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Grande Valley attack 1.44 + Phoenix Rising defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.48

Phoenix Rising attack 1.40 + Rio Grande Valley defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rio Grande Valley scores more
41%
level
25%
Phoenix Rising scores more
33%

Rio Grande Valley at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rio Grande Valley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Rio Grande Valley 0–1 Phoenix Rising

Phoenix Rising beat Rio Grande Valley 1-0 in USL Championship on July 14, 2019.

The match was played at H-E-B Park (Edinburg, Texas).