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CSKA Pomir vs Parvoz — Vysshaya Liga 2013

CSKA Pomir
CSKA Pomir
FT
0 – 0
Parvoz
Parvoz
11/17/2013Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 22Stadion Politekhnikum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

CSKA Pomir66%
×Draw20%
Parvoz14%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Pomir
2.04
Parvoz
0.82

CSKA Pomir creates 149% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 30 away

creates per match

CSKA Pomir
1.84
Parvoz
0.47

allows per match

CSKA Pomir
1.18
Parvoz
2.23

finishing

CSKA Pomir+0.00on par
Parvoz+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Pomir ↓

Parvoz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

CSKA Pomir or draw
86%
CSKA Pomir or Parvoz
80%
Draw or Parvoz
34%

Winning margin

CSKA Pomir wins by 2+
41%
Parvoz wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

CSKA Pomir 1+ goals
87%
CSKA Pomir 2+ goals
60%
CSKA Pomir 3+ goals
33%
Parvoz 1+ goals
56%
Parvoz 2+ goals
20%
Parvoz 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

CSKA Pomir (draw refunded)
82%
Parvoz (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Pomir at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.18 · 49 matches

Parvoz away — creates 0.47, concedes 2.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Pomir attack 1.84 + Parvoz defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.04

Parvoz attack 0.47 + CSKA Pomir defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

CSKA Pomir scores more
66%
level
20%
Parvoz scores more
14%

CSKA Pomir at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "CSKA Pomir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CSKA Pomir vs Parvoz

CSKA Pomir and Parvoz drew 0-0 in Vysshaya Liga on November 17, 2013.

The match was played at Stadion Politekhnikum in Dushanbe.