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Rio Ave vs Sporting CP — Primeira Liga 2018

Rio Ave
Rio Ave
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Sporting CP
Sporting CP
2/25/2024Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 23Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Rio Ave29%
×Draw26%
Sporting CP45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rio Ave
1.09
Sporting CP
1.43

Sporting CP creates 31% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

Rio Ave
1.37
Sporting CP
1.61

allows per match

Rio Ave
1.24
Sporting CP
0.81

finishing

Rio Ave-0.37scores less
Sporting CP+0.68scores more

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Ave ↓

Sporting CP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rio Ave or draw
55%
Rio Ave or Sporting CP
74%
Draw or Sporting CP
71%

Winning margin

Rio Ave wins by 2+
11%
Sporting CP wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Rio Ave 1+ goals
66%
Rio Ave 2+ goals
30%
Rio Ave 3+ goals
10%
Sporting CP 1+ goals
76%
Sporting CP 2+ goals
42%
Sporting CP 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Rio Ave (draw refunded)
39%
Sporting CP (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Ave at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.24 · 13 matches

Sporting CP away — creates 1.61, concedes 0.81 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Ave attack 1.37 + Sporting CP defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.09

Sporting CP attack 1.61 + Rio Ave defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rio Ave scores more
29%
level
26%
Sporting CP scores more
45%

Sporting CP at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sporting CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rio Ave vs Sporting CP

Rio Ave and Sporting CP drew 3-3 in Primeira Liga on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube in Vila do Conde.