Rio Ave vs Belenenses — Primeira Liga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 68+ matches
Rio Ave44%
Belenenses29%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Rio Ave creates 30% more chances
Season form · 120 home / 68 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under58
- Over42
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No53
- Yes47
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Rio Ave ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Rio Ave at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.32 · 120 matches
Belenenses away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.41 · 68 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Rio Ave attack 1.25 + Belenenses defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.33
Belenenses attack 0.72 + Rio Ave defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.02
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Rio Ave at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Rio Ave will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Rio Ave substitutes
Benfica
FC Porto
Sporting CP
SC Braga
Guimaraes
MoreirenseRio Ave
BoavistaBelenenses
Santa Clara
Portimonense
Maritimo
Vitoria Setubal
Aves
Tondela
Chaves
Nacional
FeirenseIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Rio Ave host Belenenses on Sunday, 16 December 2018 at 15:00. The match is part of the Primeira Liga 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Rio Ave vs Belenenses
Rio Ave and Belenenses drew 2-2 in Primeira Liga on December 16, 2018.
Goals: Gonçalo Silva (28' o.g.), Licá (58'), Gelson (64'), Fredy (69' pen).
Rio Ave controlled possession (53%) and registered 8 shots to 12.
The match was played at Estádio dos Arcos in Vila do Conde.