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Rilski Sportist vs Chavdar Etropole — Third League - Southwest 2018

Rilski Sportist
Rilski Sportist
FT
2 – 2
Chavdar Etropole
Chavdar Etropole
11/10/2018Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Round 15Stadion Iskar (Samokov)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Rilski Sportist42%
×Draw25%
Chavdar Etropole33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rilski Sportist
1.53
Chavdar Etropole
1.33

Rilski Sportist creates 15% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 87 away

creates per match

Rilski Sportist
1.72
Chavdar Etropole
1.55

allows per match

Rilski Sportist
1.10
Chavdar Etropole
1.34

finishing

Rilski Sportist+0.00on par
Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rilski Sportist ↓

Chavdar Etropole →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Rilski Sportist or draw
67%
Rilski Sportist or Chavdar Etropole
75%
Draw or Chavdar Etropole
58%

Winning margin

Rilski Sportist wins by 2+
21%
Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rilski Sportist 1+ goals
78%
Rilski Sportist 2+ goals
45%
Rilski Sportist 3+ goals
20%
Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals
74%
Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals
38%
Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Rilski Sportist (draw refunded)
56%
Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rilski Sportist at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.10 · 132 matches

Chavdar Etropole away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.34 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rilski Sportist attack 1.72 + Chavdar Etropole defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.53

Chavdar Etropole attack 1.55 + Rilski Sportist defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rilski Sportist scores more
42%
level
25%
Chavdar Etropole scores more
33%

Rilski Sportist at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rilski Sportist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Rilski Sportist 2–2 Chavdar Etropole

Rilski Sportist and Chavdar Etropole drew 2-2 in Third League - Southwest on November 10, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Iskar (Samokov).