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Rīgas FS vs Spartaks Jurmala — Virsliga 2019

Rīgas FS
Rīgas FS
CANC
16:00
Spartaks Jurmala
Spartaks Jurmala
9/29/2021VirsligaVirsliga · Round 31RFS Jāņa Skredeļa sporta komplekss Dabīgais segum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Rīgas FS67%
×Draw18%
Spartaks Jurmala15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rīgas FS
2.38
Spartaks Jurmala
1.01

Rīgas FS creates 136% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 52 away

creates per match

Rīgas FS
2.70
Spartaks Jurmala
1.29

allows per match

Rīgas FS
0.73
Spartaks Jurmala
2.06

finishing

Rīgas FS+0.00on par
Spartaks Jurmala+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rīgas FS ↓

Spartaks Jurmala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Rīgas FS or draw
85%
Rīgas FS or Spartaks Jurmala
82%
Draw or Spartaks Jurmala
33%

Winning margin

Rīgas FS wins by 2+
45%
Spartaks Jurmala wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Rīgas FS 1+ goals
91%
Rīgas FS 2+ goals
68%
Rīgas FS 3+ goals
42%
Spartaks Jurmala 1+ goals
64%
Spartaks Jurmala 2+ goals
27%
Spartaks Jurmala 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rīgas FS (draw refunded)
82%
Spartaks Jurmala (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rīgas FS at home — creates 2.70, concedes 0.73 · 115 matches

Spartaks Jurmala away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.06 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rīgas FS attack 2.70 + Spartaks Jurmala defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.38

Spartaks Jurmala attack 1.29 + Rīgas FS defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Rīgas FS scores more
67%
level
18%
Spartaks Jurmala scores more
15%

Rīgas FS at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Rīgas FS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Rīgas FS host Spartaks Jurmala

September 29, 2021: Rīgas FS take on Spartaks Jurmala in Virsliga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Rīgas FS host Spartaks Jurmala at RFS Jāņa Skredeļa sporta komplekss Dabīgais segum.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.