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Rīgas FS vs Metta / LU — Virsliga 2026

Rīgas FS
Rīgas FS
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Metta / LU
Metta / LU
11/11/2023VirsligaVirsliga · Round 36LNK Sporta Parks

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Rīgas FS73%
×Draw16%
Metta / LU11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rīgas FS
2.52
Metta / LU
0.86

Rīgas FS creates 193% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 107 away

creates per match

Rīgas FS
2.70
Metta / LU
1.00

allows per match

Rīgas FS
0.73
Metta / LU
2.34

finishing

Rīgas FS+0.00on par
Metta / LU+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rīgas FS ↓

Metta / LU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Rīgas FS or draw
89%
Rīgas FS or Metta / LU
84%
Draw or Metta / LU
27%

Winning margin

Rīgas FS wins by 2+
51%
Metta / LU wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Rīgas FS 1+ goals
92%
Rīgas FS 2+ goals
71%
Rīgas FS 3+ goals
45%
Metta / LU 1+ goals
58%
Metta / LU 2+ goals
21%
Metta / LU 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Rīgas FS (draw refunded)
87%
Metta / LU (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rīgas FS at home — creates 2.70, concedes 0.73 · 115 matches

Metta / LU away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.34 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rīgas FS attack 2.70 + Metta / LU defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.52

Metta / LU attack 1.00 + Rīgas FS defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Rīgas FS scores more
73%
level
16%
Metta / LU scores more
11%

Rīgas FS at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Rīgas FS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rīgas FS vs Metta / LU

Rīgas FS beat Metta / LU 1-0 in Virsliga on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at LNK Sporta Parks in Riga.