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Rīgas FS vs FK Ventspils — Virsliga 2019

Rīgas FS
Rīgas FS
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
FK Ventspils
FK Ventspils
11/3/2019VirsligaVirsliga · Round 35Stadions NSB Arkadija artificial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Rīgas FS62%
×Draw21%
FK Ventspils17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rīgas FS
2.06
FK Ventspils
0.98

Rīgas FS creates 110% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 31 away

creates per match

Rīgas FS
2.70
FK Ventspils
1.23

allows per match

Rīgas FS
0.73
FK Ventspils
1.42

finishing

Rīgas FS+0.00on par
FK Ventspils+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rīgas FS ↓

FK Ventspils →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Rīgas FS or draw
83%
Rīgas FS or FK Ventspils
79%
Draw or FK Ventspils
38%

Winning margin

Rīgas FS wins by 2+
38%
FK Ventspils wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Rīgas FS 1+ goals
87%
Rīgas FS 2+ goals
61%
Rīgas FS 3+ goals
34%
FK Ventspils 1+ goals
62%
FK Ventspils 2+ goals
26%
FK Ventspils 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rīgas FS (draw refunded)
78%
FK Ventspils (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rīgas FS at home — creates 2.70, concedes 0.73 · 115 matches

FK Ventspils away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rīgas FS attack 2.70 + FK Ventspils defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 2.06

FK Ventspils attack 1.23 + Rīgas FS defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Rīgas FS scores more
62%
level
21%
FK Ventspils scores more
17%

Rīgas FS at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Rīgas FS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Virsliga: Rīgas FS 2–1 FK Ventspils

Rīgas FS beat FK Ventspils 2-1 in Virsliga on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Stadions NSB Arkadija artificial.