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Riga vs Tukums — Virsliga 2025

Riga
Riga
Preview
16:00
Tukums
Tukums
7/18/2026VirsligaVirsliga · Round 23Skonto stadions
Big match
69%
Riga
model favours
69%18%13%

Tukums have scored in 15 games running

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Riga69%
×Draw18%
Tukums13%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Riga
2.31
Tukums
0.88

Riga creates 163% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 29 away

creates per match

Riga
2.55
Tukums
1.00

allows per match

Riga
0.76
Tukums
2.07

finishing

Riga+0.00on par
Tukums+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Riga ↓

Tukums →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Riga or draw
87%
Riga or Tukums
82%
Draw or Tukums
31%

Winning margin

Riga wins by 2+
46%
Tukums wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Riga 1+ goals
90%
Riga 2+ goals
67%
Riga 3+ goals
40%
Tukums 1+ goals
59%
Tukums 2+ goals
22%
Tukums 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Riga (draw refunded)
84%
Tukums (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Riga at home — creates 2.55, concedes 0.76 · 29 matches

Tukums away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.07 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Riga attack 2.55 + Tukums defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.31

Tukums attack 1.00 + Riga defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Riga scores more
69%
level
18%
Tukums scores more
13%

Riga at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Riga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • When Riga score first, they win 100% of the time
  • Tukums score first in only 22% of matches
  • Both teams score in 89% of Tukums’s matches
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (76% and 72% over 2.5)
  • 76% of Riga’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 72% of Tukums’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Riga
WWLWW
Tukums
LLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Riga face Tukums (Virsliga)

Virsliga returns with Riga hosting Tukums. Match starts July 18, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Riga host Tukums at Skonto stadions.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.