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Ried II vs Bad Gleichenberg — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Ried II
Ried II
CANC
15:00
Bad Gleichenberg
Bad Gleichenberg
5/9/2020Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 26josko ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Ried II43%
×Draw22%
Bad Gleichenberg35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ried II
1.88
Bad Gleichenberg
1.69

Ried II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 75 away

creates per match

Ried II
1.71
Bad Gleichenberg
1.75

allows per match

Ried II
1.64
Bad Gleichenberg
2.04

finishing

Ried II+0.00on par
Bad Gleichenberg+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ried II ↓

Bad Gleichenberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Ried II or draw
65%
Ried II or Bad Gleichenberg
78%
Draw or Bad Gleichenberg
57%

Winning margin

Ried II wins by 2+
23%
Bad Gleichenberg wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ried II 1+ goals
85%
Ried II 2+ goals
56%
Ried II 3+ goals
29%
Bad Gleichenberg 1+ goals
82%
Bad Gleichenberg 2+ goals
50%
Bad Gleichenberg 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Ried II (draw refunded)
55%
Bad Gleichenberg (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ried II at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.64 · 90 matches

Bad Gleichenberg away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.04 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ried II attack 1.71 + Bad Gleichenberg defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.88

Bad Gleichenberg attack 1.75 + Ried II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ried II scores more
43%
level
22%
Bad Gleichenberg scores more
35%

Ried II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ried II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ried II vs Bad Gleichenberg — Match Preview

Ried II face Bad Gleichenberg on May 9, 2020 in this Regionalliga - Mitte fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Ried II host Bad Gleichenberg at josko ARENA.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.