Sheffield Utd 2–1 Oxford United: Result & Stats

Sheffield Utd

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Oxford United

J. Wilson 73'

B. Sharp 65'

K. Hemmings 16'

8/27/2016

League One · Round 5Bramall Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Sheffield Utd42%

×Draw24%

Oxford United35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield UtdExpected goals in this matchOxford United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.47

Sheffield Utd

1.63

Oxford United

1.47

Sheffield Utd creates 11% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 135 away

1.86

creates per match

1.36

1.57

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Sheffield Utd

1.86

Oxford United

1.36

allows per match

Sheffield Utd

1.57

Oxford United

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sheffield Utd+0.00on par

Oxford United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Oxford United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw

65%

Sheffield Utd or Oxford United

76%

Draw or Oxford United

58%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

21%

Oxford United wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

80%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

48%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

22%

Oxford United 1+ goals

77%

Oxford United 2+ goals

43%

Oxford United 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

55%

Oxford United (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Oxford United away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.39 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.86 + Oxford United defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.63

Oxford United attack 1.36 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more

42%

level

24%

Oxford United scores more

35%

Sheffield Utd at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

Chris Basham

16'

Jake Wright

16'

K. Hemmings

46'

J. O'Connell← C. Hussey

46'

A. Martin← J. Skarz

52'

Kieron Freeman

60'

Kane Hemmings

65'

B. Sharp↳ M. Done

67'

R. Taylor← K. Hemmings

73'

Josh Ruffels

73'

J. Wilson↳ M. Duffy

74'

J. Rothwell← A. MacDonald

80'

J. Fleck← S. Scougall

86'

L. Clarke← B. Sharp

Sheffield

Oxford

1

Eastwood

16

Edwards

3

▼

33

8

14

4

10

11

▼

MacDonald

9

Thomas

15

⚽

▼

Hemmings

25

Moore

20

⚽

Wilson

3

▼

6

13

18

21

A

Duffy

11

A

Done

15

Coutts

8

▼

Scougall

10

⚽

▼

Sharp

Manager: C. Wilder

46'▲J. O'Connell←▼C. Hussey

80'▲J. Fleck←▼S. Scougall

86'▲L. Clarke←▼B. Sharp

Sheffield Utd substitutes

5O'Connell4Fleck27Clarke12Ramsdale14Calvert-Lewin23Whiteman32Chapman

Manager: M. Appleton

46'▲A. Martin←▼J. Skarz

67'▲R. Taylor←▼K. Hemmings

74'▲J. Rothwell←▼A. MacDonald

Oxford United substitutes

6Martin20Taylor18Rothwell7Crowley13Büchel21Roberts23Ledson