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Rhode Island vs Indy Eleven — USL Championship 2026

Rhode Island
Rhode Island
Preview
23:30
Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
9/30/2026USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Group StageCentreville Bank Stadium
Big match
51%
Rhode Island
model favours
51%26%23%

65% of Indy Eleven’s goals come after the 75th minute

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Rhode Island51%
×Draw26%
Indy Eleven23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rhode Island
1.53
Indy Eleven
0.95

Rhode Island creates 61% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 130 away

creates per match

Rhode Island
1.48
Indy Eleven
1.10

allows per match

Rhode Island
0.80
Indy Eleven
1.58

finishing

Rhode Island+0.00on par
Indy Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rhode Island ↓

Indy Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rhode Island or draw
77%
Rhode Island or Indy Eleven
74%
Draw or Indy Eleven
49%

Winning margin

Rhode Island wins by 2+
26%
Indy Eleven wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rhode Island 1+ goals
78%
Rhode Island 2+ goals
45%
Rhode Island 3+ goals
20%
Indy Eleven 1+ goals
61%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
25%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rhode Island (draw refunded)
68%
Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rhode Island at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.80 · 40 matches

Indy Eleven away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.58 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rhode Island attack 1.48 + Indy Eleven defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.53

Indy Eleven attack 1.10 + Rhode Island defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rhode Island scores more
51%
level
26%
Indy Eleven scores more
23%

Rhode Island at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Rhode Island will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Indy Eleven score first in only 26% of matches
  • 57% of Rhode Island’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Island
WDLDW
Eleven
LLWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Rhode Island host Indy Eleven

September 30, 2026: Rhode Island take on Indy Eleven in USL Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Rhode Island host Indy Eleven at Centreville Bank Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.