Rhode Island 3–3 Indy Eleven: Result & Stats

Rhode Island

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Indy Eleven

7/5/2024

USL Championship · Round 21Beirne Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Rhode Island51%

×Draw26%

Indy Eleven24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rhode IslandExpected goals in this matchIndy Eleven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.97

Rhode Island

1.54

Indy Eleven

0.97

Rhode Island creates 59% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 129 away

1.49

creates per match

1.11

0.82

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Rhode Island

1.49

Indy Eleven

1.11

allows per match

Rhode Island

0.82

Indy Eleven

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rhode Island+0.00on par

Indy Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rhode Island ↓

Indy Eleven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Rhode Island or draw

76%

Rhode Island or Indy Eleven

74%

Draw or Indy Eleven

49%

Winning margin

Rhode Island wins by 2+

26%

Indy Eleven wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Rhode Island 1+ goals

79%

Rhode Island 2+ goals

45%

Rhode Island 3+ goals

20%

Indy Eleven 1+ goals

62%

Indy Eleven 2+ goals

25%

Indy Eleven 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Rhode Island (draw refunded)

68%

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rhode Island at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.82 · 39 matches

Indy Eleven away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.58 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rhode Island attack 1.49 + Indy Eleven defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.54

Indy Eleven attack 1.11 + Rhode Island defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rhode Island scores more

51%

level

26%

Indy Eleven scores more

24%

Rhode Island at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Rhode Island will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff