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Reynir vs KF — 2. Deild 2018

Reynir
Reynir
FT
0 – 2
KF
KF
T. Wilson 73'
O. Diouck 50'
5/15/20212. Deild2. Deild · Round 2BLUE-völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Reynir48%
×Draw22%
KF30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reynir
2.02
KF
1.57

Reynir creates 29% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 55 away

creates per match

Reynir
1.45
KF
1.53

allows per match

Reynir
1.61
KF
2.58

finishing

Reynir+0.00on par
KF+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reynir ↓

KF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Reynir or draw
70%
Reynir or KF
78%
Draw or KF
52%

Winning margin

Reynir wins by 2+
27%
KF wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Reynir 1+ goals
87%
Reynir 2+ goals
60%
Reynir 3+ goals
33%
KF 1+ goals
79%
KF 2+ goals
46%
KF 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Reynir (draw refunded)
61%
KF (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reynir at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.61 · 33 matches

KF away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.58 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reynir attack 1.45 + KF defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.02

KF attack 1.53 + Reynir defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Reynir scores more
48%
level
22%
KF scores more
30%

Reynir at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Reynir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'
O. Diouck
73'
T. Wilson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Reynir vs KF

KF beat Reynir 2-0 in 2. Deild on May 15, 2021.

Goals: O. Diouck (50'), T. Wilson (73').

The match was played at BLUE-völlurinn in Sandgerði.