Revilla 2–1 Castro: Result & Stats

Revilla

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Castro

3/11/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 24Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Revilla38%

×Draw26%

Castro36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RevillaExpected goals in this matchCastro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.34

Revilla

1.38

Castro

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 96 away

1.30

creates per match

1.02

1.67

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Revilla

1.30

Castro

1.02

allows per match

Revilla

1.67

Castro

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Revilla+0.00on par

Castro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Revilla ↓

Castro →

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Revilla or draw

64%

Revilla or Castro

74%

Draw or Castro

62%

Winning margin

Revilla wins by 2+

18%

Castro wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Revilla 1+ goals

75%

Revilla 2+ goals

40%

Revilla 3+ goals

16%

Castro 1+ goals

74%

Castro 2+ goals

39%

Castro 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Revilla (draw refunded)

51%

Castro (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Revilla at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.67 · 81 matches

Castro away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.46 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Revilla attack 1.30 + Castro defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.38

Castro attack 1.02 + Revilla defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Revilla scores more

38%

level

26%

Castro scores more

36%

Revilla at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Revilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff