Revilla 0–3 Atlético Albericia: Result & Stats

Revilla

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Atlético Albericia

12/2/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 13Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Revilla32%

×Draw24%

Atlético Albericia43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RevillaExpected goals in this matchAtlético Albericia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.62

Revilla

1.37

Atlético Albericia

1.62

Atlético Albericia creates 18% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 108 away

1.30

creates per match

1.57

1.67

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Revilla

1.30

Atlético Albericia

1.57

allows per match

Revilla

1.67

Atlético Albericia

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Revilla+0.00on par

Atlético Albericia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Revilla ↓

Atlético Albericia →

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Revilla or draw

57%

Revilla or Atlético Albericia

76%

Draw or Atlético Albericia

68%

Winning margin

Revilla wins by 2+

14%

Atlético Albericia wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Revilla 1+ goals

75%

Revilla 2+ goals

40%

Revilla 3+ goals

16%

Atlético Albericia 1+ goals

80%

Atlético Albericia 2+ goals

48%

Atlético Albericia 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Revilla (draw refunded)

43%

Atlético Albericia (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Revilla at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.67 · 81 matches

Atlético Albericia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.44 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Revilla attack 1.30 + Atlético Albericia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.37

Atlético Albericia attack 1.57 + Revilla defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Revilla scores more

32%

level

24%

Atlético Albericia scores more

43%

Atlético Albericia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Atlético Albericia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff