Retz 1–1 Waidhofen / Thaya: Result & Stats

Retz

FT

1 – 1

Waidhofen / Thaya

10/17/2020

Landesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 7Sportplatz Retz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Retz70%

×Draw18%

Waidhofen / Thaya12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RetzExpected goals in this matchWaidhofen / Thaya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

0.82

Retz

2.27

Waidhofen / Thaya

0.82

Retz creates 177% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 55 away

2.00

creates per match

0.71

0.93

allows per match

2.55

creates per match

Retz

2.00

Waidhofen / Thaya

0.71

allows per match

Retz

0.93

Waidhofen / Thaya

2.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Retz+0.00on par

Waidhofen / Thaya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Retz ↓

Waidhofen / Thaya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Retz or draw

88%

Retz or Waidhofen / Thaya

82%

Draw or Waidhofen / Thaya

30%

Winning margin

Retz wins by 2+

46%

Waidhofen / Thaya wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Retz 1+ goals

90%

Retz 2+ goals

66%

Retz 3+ goals

39%

Waidhofen / Thaya 1+ goals

56%

Waidhofen / Thaya 2+ goals

20%

Waidhofen / Thaya 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Retz (draw refunded)

85%

Waidhofen / Thaya (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Retz at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.93 · 70 matches

Waidhofen / Thaya away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.55 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Retz attack 2.00 + Waidhofen / Thaya defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.27

Waidhofen / Thaya attack 0.71 + Retz defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Retz scores more

70%

level

18%

Waidhofen / Thaya scores more

12%

Retz at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Retz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff