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Retz vs Spratzern — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

Retz
Retz
CANC
15:30
Spratzern
Spratzern
6/7/2020Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 29Sportplatz Retz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Retz61%
×Draw21%
Spratzern18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Retz
2.04
Spratzern
0.99

Retz creates 106% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 41 away

creates per match

Retz
2.00
Spratzern
1.05

allows per match

Retz
0.93
Spratzern
2.07

finishing

Retz+0.00on par
Spratzern+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Retz ↓

Spratzern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Retz or draw
82%
Retz or Spratzern
79%
Draw or Spratzern
39%

Winning margin

Retz wins by 2+
38%
Spratzern wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Retz 1+ goals
87%
Retz 2+ goals
60%
Retz 3+ goals
33%
Spratzern 1+ goals
63%
Spratzern 2+ goals
26%
Spratzern 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Retz (draw refunded)
78%
Spratzern (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Retz at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.93 · 70 matches

Spratzern away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.07 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Retz attack 2.00 + Spratzern defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.04

Spratzern attack 1.05 + Retz defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Retz scores more
61%
level
21%
Spratzern scores more
18%

Retz at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Retz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Retz vs Spratzern — Match Preview

Retz face Spratzern on June 7, 2020 in this Landesliga - Niederosterreich fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Retz host Spratzern at Sportplatz Retz.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.