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Respublika FA vs Gazalkent — Pro League A 2026

Respublika FA
Respublika FA
Preview
13:00
Gazalkent
Gazalkent
8/4/2026Pro League APro League A · Round 13
40%
Gazalkent
model favours
33%26%40%

Respublika FA and Gazalkent have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Respublika FA33%
×Draw26%
Gazalkent40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Respublika FA
1.23
Gazalkent
1.38

Gazalkent creates 12% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Respublika FA
1.25
Gazalkent
2.00

allows per match

Respublika FA
0.75
Gazalkent
1.20

finishing

Respublika FA+0.00on par
Gazalkent+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Respublika FA ↓

Gazalkent →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Respublika FA or draw
60%
Respublika FA or Gazalkent
74%
Draw or Gazalkent
67%

Winning margin

Respublika FA wins by 2+
14%
Gazalkent wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Respublika FA 1+ goals
71%
Respublika FA 2+ goals
35%
Respublika FA 3+ goals
13%
Gazalkent 1+ goals
75%
Gazalkent 2+ goals
40%
Gazalkent 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Respublika FA (draw refunded)
45%
Gazalkent (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Respublika FA at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Gazalkent away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Respublika FA attack 1.25 + Gazalkent defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Gazalkent attack 2.00 + Respublika FA defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Respublika FA scores more
33%
level
26%
Gazalkent scores more
40%

Gazalkent at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gazalkent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
FA
WWLDD
Gazalkent
WWDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Respublika FA vs Gazalkent — Match Preview

Respublika FA face Gazalkent on August 4, 2026 in this Pro League A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.