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Respublika FA vs FarDu — Pro League A 2026

Respublika FA
Respublika FA
Preview
13:00
FarDu
FarDu
9/12/2026Pro League APro League A · Round 19
54%
Respublika FA
model favours
54%26%20%
1–0
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Respublika FA54%
×Draw26%
FarDu20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Respublika FA
1.50
FarDu
0.81

Respublika FA creates 85% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 16 away

creates per match

Respublika FA
1.25
FarDu
0.88

allows per match

Respublika FA
0.75
FarDu
1.75

finishing

Respublika FA+0.00on par
FarDu+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Respublika FA ↓

FarDu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Respublika FA or draw
80%
Respublika FA or FarDu
74%
Draw or FarDu
46%

Winning margin

Respublika FA wins by 2+
28%
FarDu wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Respublika FA 1+ goals
78%
Respublika FA 2+ goals
44%
Respublika FA 3+ goals
19%
FarDu 1+ goals
56%
FarDu 2+ goals
19%
FarDu 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Respublika FA (draw refunded)
73%
FarDu (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Respublika FA at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

FarDu away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.75 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Respublika FA attack 1.25 + FarDu defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.50

FarDu attack 0.88 + Respublika FA defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Respublika FA scores more
54%
level
26%
FarDu scores more
20%

Respublika FA at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Respublika FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
FA
WWLDD
FarDu
LLWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Respublika FA face FarDu (Pro League A)

Pro League A returns with Respublika FA hosting FarDu. Match starts September 12, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.